Published in Nepal News. COM

Issue 19 - June, 2006
By: Dr. Dwarika Nath Dhungel
Posted on: 9/13/2005
Challenges after the Ceasefire

By Dr. Dwarika N. Dhungel

It is too early to say whether the curtain of the stage managed drama started in May of this year and continued for almost four months till the recent declaration of the ceasefire by the outlawed Communist Party of Nepal (Moist) on September 3, with the knowledge and support of the power centers in New Delhi, has been completely drawn and what impact it would have in the on going conflict and to the very fluid political situation of the country. Also one will have to wait for some more time to know which of the actors involved in the Nepali politics would be swept away in what manner as the outcome of the drama. Above all how soon it would contribute to the resolution of the on going conflict or help for a long protected war in the country could still be a pre-mature guess.

Of the actors, the only political force that seems to have taken aback by the declaration of the ceasefire is the current establishment, which is directly headed by King Gyanendra. From all the statements that have come and continue to come from and those who are nearer to the current establishment, it is evident that it felt that 'the carpet has been pulled from under its feet'. And as a reaction, the government decided to snub the call of the CPN Maoist rather than converting it as an opportunity of resolving the conflict, despite the fact that all stakeholders within the country--political parties, civil society and people from the different walks of the lives -- welcomed it and expressed that it would contribute to the lasting resolution of the on-going costly and bloody conflict.

The way the government behaved not only further isolated it from the larger section of the society but also put itself in a much more tight ropewalking situation. It has made its position weaker in relation to the other political actors. The manner in which the fast developments is taking in the political front, it would rather be impossible for the government to resist immense public pressure to respond positively to the declaration of unilateral ceasefire. Thus the main challenge before the establishment now is how to salvage itself from growing isolation within the country. Given the type of the persons it has as its political stalwarts and heads of the administration at both the local and central level, including the recent appointment to the position of the head of the civil service, it would not be able to do so.

The political parties have become part of the Nepalese society over time and would continue to remain so in the future. But despite the fact that seven parties had joined hand and formed a coalition against what they call Asoj tantra or Makartantra (referring to the royal takeover first on October 4, 2002 and assumption of the Chair of the Council of Ministers on Feb.1, 2005) and launching peaceful movement against the King's move, they seem to be in a weaker position to mobilise people in their movement. This is because of their inability to openly accept their mistakes committed while they were in the office. Against such a backdrop, the ceasefire as well as willingness on the part of the CPN Maoist to enter into dialogue with the political parties seems to have boosted the morale of the opposition parties. In a statement, spokesperson of the External Affairs Ministry of the Government of India (GOBI) welcomed the announcement of ceasefire by the CPN Maoist and hoped that the Maoists will contribute towards creating an environment in which a peace process can begin. ‘’ The problems of Nepal can only be addressed on a durable basis through a process of dialogue and reconciliation in an atmosphere free from violence and terror,'’ the Indian government said.

Such developments certainly will have impact in containing the ambition of King Gyanendra, who wants to have his own model of parliamentary system of government and constitutional monarchy, which is nothing but his ambition of being a constructive monarch under the façade of the Constitutional Monarchy established in the country.

The political parties’ position vis-à-vis the present establishment, thus seems to have significantly improved and the current ceasefire and willingness on the part of the CPN Maoist to start the talk with the political parties are welcome developments for those who would like to see turning existing tri-polar conflict into bi-polar conflict as a means to solve the conflict. But if the offer of the CPN-Maoist has afforded an opportunity to the political parties to revive their strength in the political landscape of the country, this has also come as a challenge to them. Perhaps the most important challenge before them is assuring the people that they would not make same mistakes once again and assure the general public that they are one block in the real sense and do not wrangle once again if they do come to power.

Once the major political parties, especially the Nepali Congress and CPN/UML have agreed to discard one of the main pillars of the current constitution, the Constitutional Monarchy, and have expressed their willingness to go for the constituent assembly to draft a new constitution the current constitution is for all practical purpose is dead. And the country, once again is going to have a new constitution with the acceptance of the CPN/Maoist. Like other political actors, there are challenges before the CPN Maoist too. They include: assuring the people that they would honor the right of the people, especially their right to participate in the political process in the competitive manner and right to freedom. Above all the main challenge before them is to assure that the territorial integrity of the country would not be compromised in the name of the giving autonomy to the ethnic groups. How the political parties would safeguard or receive guarantees from the CPN Maoist on these matters during their discussions need to be closely watched and monitored. As silencing of their guns during the peace and post peace process would play a very important role in the successful resolution of the conflict, this is another challenge which they will have to handle ultimately.

The way the drama was staged outside the country which culminated into the call of the ceasefire, paved for the possible dialogue between the political parties and CPN/Maoist and succeeded in further isolating the King from the international community shows that the conflict in Nepal no longer remains purely a domestic issue to be sorted out by the national players alone. It has been internationalized. Above all, the major powers have left India to take the lead in the resolution of the conflict. And from the information received from different quarters it has come to fore that major powers and international community were kept informed of what was going on in New Delhi. And from the contents of the statements that came out from the MEA/ GoI and EU, which is now presided over by the UK, it is clear that they have same voice with regard to the resolution of the Nepalese problem and they have allowed MEA/GoI to take the lead in this matter. It could be recalled that because of the historical and other causes, people of Nepal are very sensitive of the attitude and behaviour of the GoI towards Nepal. Whenever Nepal became weak, they capitalised it in the form of the 1950 treaty or sent the draft of a treaty in 1989, which late King Birendra discarded and instead agreed to reach into compromise with the people of Nepal. Nepalis are keen to see whether the international community in the name of helping to resolve the conflict would leave Nepal completely at the mercy of South Block or ensure that her territorial integrity would not be compromised and she would not be forced to sign a treaty that would limit her sovereignty and territorial integrity. Therefore there is a challenge before the international community too, that is to assure that 'by leaving Nepal at the mercy of South Block, they have and would not forget the territorial integrity of the country'. And every conscious Nepali would like to know that the interest of the country has not been sacrificed by the CPN/Maoist while agreeing for the ceasefire and agreeing to start the dialogue with the political parties.
The Maoist insurgency has become a costly matter to the country and there is a need for all the main actors to buzz from their respective stand and agree for give and take for the sake of the people and nation. But none of the actors have buzzed an inch from the respective stand resulting into internationalization of the matter. Now the international community has taken over the responsibility of forcing a resolution to the conflict. Recent ceasefire is the first indication of this. In such a context, for the conscious citizens of the country and civil society, concern should be not who is going to occupy the chair of running the country, but to see that the territorial integrity of the country is not compromised and freedoms enjoyed by the people of Nepal over the years are not sacrificed. Ultimately people's right to accept or reject the future political structure accepted by the political actors through the referendum also needs to be guaranteed.

Nepal has never been in such a critical threshold as she is now since she started taking present shape since the time of late King Prithivi Naryan Shah. She is no longer in a position to sustain the on going conflict. The call for ceasefire and dialogue between the actors were already overdue. So it was natural for the Nepalese people to welcome the call for ceasefire and wish that the establishment, too, would welcome it.
From all indications, it is evident that the international community, especially the southern neighbour would be playing more aggressive role in the resolution of the conflict. In the given situation, no doubt each of the actors is left to face a number of challenges. If one can't face the challenge, either it would go to the oblivion as a part of the history or face any consequences imposed on it.

Published in Nepalnews.com