Challenges after the Ceasefire

April 11, 2006
Kathmandu

From all the news and TV images that are coming from different parts of the country, it has become clear that Nepal has never been in a more difficult situation than she is facing now, not even during the 1989/90 movement for the restoration of democracy. That time the fight was between a traditional force represented by the palace of the absolute monarchical regime and a modern force represented by political parties. Currently, a fight is going on not only between these two forces but there is also a third force, the CPN-Maoists that has been raising the bloody insurgency for the last ten years. In addition, there is an international force, in which how many are involved is already known to students of contemporary politics of Nepal.

The country is thus not only entangled in a bloody conflict but is also involved in a fight between what was expected to be the natural allies after the restoration of multi-party parliamentary system, which is to some in a state of derailment for some years. While for others it has been hijacked. But the fact remains that Nepal is now under the direct administrative rule of King Gyanendra, against which attacks are being launched from two fronts: one, agitation and strikes by the political parties with the support of the CPN-Maoists and the other, direct attacks from the CPN-Maoists. In addition the international community is putting pressure on the king to restore democracy. As a consequence, the country is finding it difficult to cope with the challenges being posed within and outside the country, especially from across the border and the international community.

In the whole game, of all the political actors, the monarchy is the most isolated and from all its behaviours, especially after February 1, 2005, it has become clear that it has failed to keep itself updated with the trends within and outside the country. Had it been successful in resolving the Maoist insurgency politically, it could have improved its image among the people. But unfortunately, from all the actions of the Royal government it is hard to believe that it was sincere in solving the problem nor developing rapprochement with the political parties that had accepted the basic postulates or principles of the Constitution of the Kingdom of Nepal 1990, although many consider that it had failed to capture and reflect the socio-economic mosaic of the country in its provisions. In such a context also, the royal regime is waging a war on all fronts--with the political parties, with the Maoists insurgency who for all practical purpose seem to have control over the rural and semi-urban areas but remain isolated and alienated from almost all the international community and the press and media.

Above all, no signals have been heard or have come from the responsible quarters other than the voice of the force to quell the movements raised by the seven political parties, which tacitly or otherwise have the backing of the CPN-Maoists. As a result, for the past four or five days we have been observing ugly scenes of stone-throwing, firing of teargas shells and even bullet firing as well as people in most of the urban areas are forced to remain behind the four walls of their house for hours, some times even for 13 hours. Most of the tourists who have come a long way to enjoy the beauty of the Himalayas and ever-charming and smiling faces of Nepalese people, whom are in a state of poverty and backward situation, are forced to remain confined to their hotel rooms or eager to get the first flight out of the country. Some of them have even ventured to stage dharna at one temple at Kathmandu for peace in the country.

From the day-to-day incidents we have observed during the last couple of days and the manner in which professionals, including their respective organizations and public servants have come out in support of the ongoing movement, one could ask how long the present regime would be able to sustain. But the establishment seems to be bent on crushing the ongoing events through the use of force and clamping of the curfew, which has been floundered and openly challenged by the people.

When the whole situation of the country is in a very fluid situation and the administration is overstretched, the CPN-Maoists decided to give a blow to the establishment by attacking major towns in the Tarai areas. They are, on the one hand, capitalizing on the present fluid situation by extending support to the agitating parties and on the other hand working out a strategy to take over the country after the collapse of the present set-up. They are cashing in on the present opportunity to the best possible extent, which is but natural for them because they want to destroy the present set and create a new one. From the perspective of the CPN-Maoists, they would not have the favorable opportunity like the one they have now.

The country, from whatever is happening within its various areas and the way the establishment is reacting, is moving very fast towards the total collapse, which might lead to mass killings and possibly it may face the problem of ethnic cleansing as is seen in some countries of Africa. Furthermore, the society has become so much polarized that none of the political actors or media is willing to listen to the suggestion for talk and dialogue nor to give coverage for such suggestions.

The southern neighbour of the country is never tried of playing different cards at different times to make the situation in Nepal more fluid. If other friends, instead of sending their Kathmandu-based representatives to the capital of this country, had taken concrete steps to get the political imbroglio solved, including the Maoist problem, the situation would not have gone so bad. Some of them after giving tacit support to what was happening behind the scene in a foreign capital all of a sudden decided to turn their stands when the tri-polar conflict was turning into a bi-polar conflict, which, if allowed to continue, would have allowed it to take its own course in relation to the solution of the ongoing conflicts. They are now again harping on the same tune the need for dialogue between the constitutional forces, king and political parties. But the situation has reached a point that without simultaneous efforts to deal with the ongoing clash between the king and the political parties and the CPN Maoist insurgency, Nepal will not come out of the present grave situation.

In these contexts, as to what could be done to get the problems solved has now become a million dollar question. The only thing that is becoming clear is that the country is going down the hill day-by-day. And there is going to be further bloodshed in the days to come. Therefore, like all those who do not want to see that the country further sliding down the hill must be feeling mentally blank, I am also feeling the same. Nevertheless, I want to wish that sense would prevail, which is, at present, hoping against hope, among the political forces to save the country from its total collapse. Especially, the sooner the better it would be for the country and the people of Nepal if Prachanda--the CPN Maoist Supremeo, G.P. Koirala (the leader of the seven party alliance), King Gyanendra and not to forget the other political leaders realise the gravity of the situation. If they want to take on each other with a view to finishing the other, let them go ahead. We had enough of compromise in the past. So, they could allow the present events to take their own course. The other alternative available to them, which is remote now, is to realise the importance and role of each other in getting the ongoing problems solved. But let also not forget to remind them that the people of Nepal now do not want to lose the freedom they have exercised so far, their right to decide whom they want to be the occupants of the seat of government and mechanism to make the government and public officials accountable and take them into task in between the periodic elections.

Since the present government is that of King Gyanendra and the agitation is against his rule, he should before the time finally runs out, instead of using the force to address the situation should extend the olive branches to his opponents by stopping the muzzling of the media, releasing all the political prisoners, including those who were taken in custody in the course of the recent events, declare cease-fire, agree to organise a round-table conference to discuss all the issues in question, including drafting of the new constitution through a constituent assembly, and call upon all stakeholders, including the CPN-Maoists, to attend such a round-table conference. Let me also request the international community and friends of Nepal, if they are really interested and serious to save the country from its total collapse, to take immediate step to bring the different forces having direct stake in the present crisis to a round-table conference for discussion of all the issues and help establish sustainable peace in the country.


* Dwarika N. Dhungel is a political analyst and views expressed in this article do not represent the views of the institute, Institute for Integrated Development Studies (IIDS), a Kathmandu based think tank, where is associated.