SOS CALL TO INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

Dwarika N. Dhungel*

This time for most people of Nepal coming of New Year, was nothing except the change of yearly calendars in their respective places. Similarly, against the anticipation of many, message from the king came in the form of 'too little too late'. The seven-party alliance led agitation is gathering more momentum and getting more bloody with no symptom of where and in what form it would finally land. The king under whose direct rule for a more than one year and who is not only most isolated from the international community but also has failed, so far, to read the lines on the wall, not budged form his known stand, and seems to bent on forcefully crushing the on going political agitation in addition to taking on the CPN Maoists through his over stretched security forces. As a consequence, during the last couple of days, the country witnessed the ugly scenes of stone-throwing, firing of teargas shells and even bullet firing as well as people in most of the urban areas were forced to remain behind the four walls of their house for hours, some times even for 13 hours. But it should not be forgotten that curfew was floundered and openly challenged by the people. As a result, from all the news and TV images including the scenes of growing bloody clashes between the agitating demonstrators and the security forces, coming from different parts of the country, it is becoming more and more clear that Nepal is heading towards total collapse. This is being substantiated by the Kathmandu based US Ambassador James Moriarty through his recent face to face interview with the CNN correspondent. He has gone to the extent of saying that a helicopter might have to be kept ready for eventual messy evacuation of some people. No doubt some could leave. But what would happen to others, who are left behind, to be lynched by the mob. The net effects of all these is that 'Nepal in its modern history has never faced such difficult situation than she is facing now, not even during the 1989/90 movement for the restoration of democracy'.

From all the news or signals coming out from the different embassies in Kathmandu, it is clear that they are very much worry of possible catastrophic conditions, that are going to be very costly. Also from their utterances, which many Nepalese have been saying for some time, it is clear that the time running is running out very fast. Given the fact that the king, from the recent interviews of US Ambassador and views of the Indiana Ambassador as reported in an Indian newspaper, is still adamant and insisting his own road map; the seven political party alliance turning down the call for dialogue; their current agitation gaining support from the different quarters and momentum in different parts of the country; and the Maoists for all practical purpose controlling over the rural and semi-urban areas, Nepal's fate seems to be totally doomed. Therefore, the concern for our friends should be not who leaves the country, but avoiding the possible heavy toll and total confusion.

From all the efforts made by different sections of Nepalese society, it has become clear that none of the warring factions is willing to listen. Nor the country, so far, has found some towering personalities with the quality of statesman who could intervene successfully and bring out the country from the present mess, state of growing confusion and uncertainty. Nor there exist any civil society, whose credibility is being unchallenged by the current warring factions. Most of the vernacular newspapers are not accepting the news and views with moderation and call for dialogue nor building coalition or pressing for it.

In such a situation, one could ask whether the international community by only raising the alarm, has done the service to the people of Nepal? Or should not they make some concrete moves? They may or not have the clear view as to how they should respond. But the fact remains that they must act and respond very quickly. In this regard, let me take them back to the memory lane. In 1950 when the movement was against the Rana Oligarchy or for the restoration of multi-party democracy in 1989/90, only one country had played the role. Nepal was of no importance to most of the powerful countries of the time. But now the situation has changed. Furthermore, you never know which card a friendly country would play with whom at what time. Also, despite the fact unless separated through a major disturbance in the geological plate in which we are situated, there is a psychological mindset about this country in Nepal. But this country and her northern neighbor have to be kept on lope and informed of all the efforts made relation to solving the on going problems in Nepal. Therefore, what is required is that the countries like the US, UK, European Union, and Switzerland should play a more effective role by initiating a joint effort or through the use of the UN. While playing the role they should not forget to keep India and People's Republic of China informed of all the efforts made or going to be made.

Major players in the game, the US and India, at least at face value, still insisting on the dialogue between the king and the agitating political parties. In addition officials at the Fogy bottom and South Block must be discussing the different options including the possibility of military intervention. But given the fact none of the two actors, especially the king has not budged from his stand, the call for dialogue between the king and the political parties has become outdated. Furthermore the situation has already reached to a point that without simultaneous efforts to deal with the ongoing clash between the king and the political parties and the CPN Maoist insurgency, Nepal will not come out of the present grave situation. Therefore, two options seem to be available to the international community in dealing with Nepal's situation. One, to continue, as done by some friends, to pursue and help to further strengthen collaboration between the CPN Maoists and the political parties and allow the two attacks (one by the seven political parties and another by the CPN Maoists) become more vigorous so that it would get rid of the king. This option seems to be not acceptable to the US and would cause further damage to the lives including ethnic clash and property. The other alternative available is to get a conference, which could be called round table conference or by any name, organised to discuss all the questions in issue including the drafting of a new constitution and the right of the people to participate in its making. All the stakeholders including the CPN Maoists and the representatives of the current king' government should be invited to attend such a meeting. If the current establishment wishes to be absent, let it be. But the international community should go ahead with such a meeting, if possible under and through the auspices of UN with their participation. I do not know the modus operandi for going for such a conference, it's up to the international community to find out the ways. Given the gravity of the situation, those who have been objecting for such a move should realise that time is running out and they have to move fast so that the situation would not be similar to what happened in Somalia.

Kathmandu

April 19, 2006

This has been send to the Himalayan Ttimes for publication